Banking in 2025

Good morning, I'm John Hayes Chief Executive Officer of New Tripoli Bank. As we come to the end of 2024 and move into 2025, it's a great time to reflect on the past year and also put some thoughts together for the coming year as well. So I'd like to talk today about three things: the economy, local market conditions, and community banking in general. So first to focus on the economy the only thing that's certain at this point is uncertainty. Inflation remains sticky, the labor market has softened a bit while consumer spending remains resilient even with the highest levels of consumer debt in history. Consumer debt at this point totals $18 trillion, up almost $4 trillion since 2020. There are also changes in domestic politics and policy coming and significant risks internationally, with wars in two areas, governments reorganizing and much else happening around the globe. Continued growth or recession? An inverted yield curve ordinarily means a recession is coming, but it's been inverted for almost 3 years now and most economists at this point are expecting a moderate pace of growth in 2025, but there are some who do see a recession on the horizon, so at this point I emphasize at this point we're not expecting much by way of rate decreases in 2025. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee has reduced the discount rate three times for a total of 100 basis points in 2024 and as indicated it will be extremely cautious in terms of future action. We believe them and we're planning accordingly. So basically I'm going to stick with my opening comment: uncertainty in regards to the economy. So now we've talked about the economy let's move on to local market conditions and the local market economy. The Lehigh Valley is and has been a strong market and we expect that to continue in early December. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released the regional gross domestic product statistics and the Lehigh Valley set another record at $55.7 billion in 2023. When factoring in inflation, Lehigh Valley's economy grew by 4% from 2022, faster than the state, the Northeast, and the nation. The data measures private sector output and is the most recent available as local GDP data lags by one year. In terms of the housing market, housing remains a challenge. While rents have leveled off, home prices averaged a 10% increase year-over-year according to the Lehigh Valley Realtors Association and that's been driven in large part by low inventory. In fact, Lehigh Valley Planning Commission estimates that we're 9,000 housing units short of demand and the price of housing is a large impediment to first-time home buyers in particular. So overall we are in good shape in terms of the Lehigh Valley. Now to move on to community banking. As I'm sure you all understand, interest rates over the past couple of years have been a challenge for us and most community banks' deposit costs increase significantly more quickly than loan rates which put pressure on earnings. We've managed through this and will continue to do so while remaining very competitive. One of our major challenges and the challenge of the community banking industry as a whole is to maintain what makes us special: the service level. We provide that connection between our customers and our employees and the communities that we serve in a world that is increasingly dominated by technology. Our approach is to do both. We provide incredibly effective tools to take advantage of the latest in technology while always being here here ready to help in answering the phone. An area where we continue to demonstrate our unbending commitment to our customers is in the arena of fraud. Unfortunately, fraud will continue to be a major factor in banking. Advances in technology, computing power, and artificial intelligence have made fraud more sophisticated and unfortunately more lucrative. In fact, fraud is on track to cost $10.5 trillion in damage in 2025 according to McKenzie Consultants. We are working hard to protect you but you need to protect yourself as well. Monitor your accounts closely and use tools such as online bill pay, ACH origination, and positive pay to move more transactions electronically and minimize fraud risk. Above all, if you think there's a problem, call your bank immediately! The sooner we are alerted that there may be a problem the better the outcome will be. So finally I'd like to acknowledge the team here at New Tripoli Bank, our board of directors, and our employees. It's their dedication to our bank that makes it all work and I'd like to thank our customers and the communities that we serve as well because you're the reason that we are here. On behalf of all of us here at New Tripoli Bank, happy holidays!